To the world, India and Iran) involved in the Afghan conflict.

Right now, the whole world, in particular Russia, India, Iran and China are keeping close eye on how Pakistan and Afghanistan can bring peace and stability in the region. In the last 14 years all the regional powers have indirectly benefited from the NATO’s American-led military intervention.

The US and NATO military personnel reduction from Afghanistan compels the neighbouring countries to assume responsibility for ensuring security in their own backyards as a new generation of violent extremists (IS) are growing. As a result of recent military development (Russian military intervention) in Syria, IS has opened the ‘second front’ aiming a threat to “spill” its activities from Afghanistan to Central Asian countries to pressure Russia.

Russia’s increasing fear and concerns described by its foreign affairs that some 4,500 militants from Post-Soviet Central Asian blocs associated with IS are fighting in Afghanistan with the rival Islamic Emirate of Taliban for more territory to expand their offence against Russia. To defeat the IS, Russia suggests a truly coordinated fight against terrorism and the creation of an international coalition against it.

Russia has committed itself to take “additional counter-terrorism measures in connection with the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan within the framework of the existing and successful international formats – the SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure, the relevant bodies within the CIS and, of course, the CSTO. but still believes that regional efforts on Afghanistan should be taken mainly through the SCO, which brings together as members, observers and dialogue partners practically all countries of the region, including Afghanistan,”

Both India and China demand recognition as mature powers in the global geopolitical arena. They must demonstrate the behaviour and responsibilities that go with great-power status. In the aftermath of the U.S. and NATO forces reduction from the region, and the realization that the United States will no longer foot the bill for regional stability, unlike Russia that focuses on international cooperation, Beijing still tries to enjoy free lunch, as reluctant to intervene directly in Afghanistan. It just has stepped up to the plate in dealing only with Pakistan to handle the Afghan peace and security project.

While supporting the International efforts, China prefers to support peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. China supports the idea of three-party meeting with Pakistan and Afghanistan, and on the basis of it, a two-plus-two four-party meeting including the United States to discuss the Afghan peace issue. China, realizing the reality on the ground (power of the Taliban), on one hand demands the United States to respect the sovereignty of Afghanistan, but on the other hand sees a unique role for Pakistan to play in the peace process through Taliban with no hesitation, consideration or demanding neutrality and impartiality of Pakistan in the Taliban affairs.

India traditionally follows a progressive conservative approach towards Afghanistan. Despite warm and usual rhetorical statements since its partition, India always has tried to be a good friend from distance with Kabul, even during the 1980s when its rival Pakistan had substantive military engagement with Mujaheddin the opponent of the regime in Kabul. Unlike China and Russia as influential regional players enhancing their profile in Afghanistan, India still follows the same steps as in the past and has not underlined its role in the unfolding strategic dynamic in the region.

Critics in India believe that the Modi government, like its predecessor, has not yet taken its responsibilities as a regional power seriously. India, despite being loved and widely respected by ordinary Afghans, has given an impression that it is not serious about making hard choices. The Modi government’s success in changing that impression will determine if India will be able to preserve its equities in Afghanistan.

The US had planed to leave Afghanistan after 14 years of military presence, but the circumstance around the world particularly in the Middle East and new developments in Afghanistan (presence of IS and Taliban’s military victories in major cities) did not allow Mr Obama to keep its promise and end the longest US military presence abroad.

The United States is investing billions of dollars in Afghan National Army but is still not confident that it has the capability to defend Afghanistan and protect American interests in the region. Therefore, understandably the US will remain in Afghanistan to protect its interests in the region but not anymore to provide free launch for India, Iran, China and Russia.

Recent development has proved that the Islamic State gains the upper hand in the Northern Afghanistan over its main rival; the Taliban. The bombardments of Syria by the Coalition and Russian forces have caused a massive exodus of terrorists to Afghanistan and the risk of their infiltration into the Central Asian republics to destabilize the region and threaten Russia in retaliation to their losses in Syria is very high now.

Policy Implications

The circumstances around the world put Afghanistan once again in a hot spot. Afghan government must be very careful in not letting the country to become a testing ground for a new type of power relations between the Global (US , Russia and China) and regional powers (Pakistan, India and Iran) involved in the Afghan conflict.

The current situation in the region presents a direct threat to Afghanistan which has been going through this kind of military and political crisis for many years. Therefore, Afghanistan has to know the past to understand the present: Not to forget the existing open wound which started three-plus decades ago.

Afghanistan must learn from the problems that began and were ignited by the Soviet military intervention, US counter intervention from which eventually the country became virtually a hostage in the hands of Al-Qaida. Afghanistan has to keep in mind that stabilizing security, economy and the society after being in the middle of another devastating regional armed conflict and confrontation between the super powers won’t begin to cure easily and promptly.

Afghanistan should be directing its brotherly affection not just for a particular super power or regional power, but instead seek a more balanced approach based on its national interest, historical, moral and ethical calling cards. To achieve all these, Afghanistan needs to develop a “Friendly No” foreign policy, similar to the policy it played during the British and Russian empires in the 19^th and 20^th centuries. Afghanistan as a member of non-alignment club does not need to commit itself to military strategic agreement with super powers and regional powers.

View expressed in this article are of the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Pajhwok’s editorial policy.

 

Visits: 1