Yet another historic turn is about to take place in Afghanistan are set to declare their victory in 18 years of war as the US is about to sign an accord with them to withdraw coalition forces from Afghanistan in exchange for a commitment not to let Afghan territory be again used for international terrorism. What lies ahead after the US exit from Afghanistan?

In politico-military terms, the Afghan Taliban have played their cards well. They have not only kept their military offensive, but have also negotiated on their own terms. Like in South Vietnam, the Americans seem to have almost left their allies in Kabul in a quandary. Bypassing the Ashraf Ghani regime, as the Taliban had insisted, the US is about to directly sign a deal with the Taliban in the current round of talks in Doha. Only after that, the Taliban would be willing to talk to the elements of the Kabul regime, besides other stakeholders for a reconciliation and the future setup of Afghanistan.

Thanks to a broader understanding reached among the US, China, Russia and most importantly Pakistan in particular.

Now the real post-war challenges steer in the face of the adversaries. The Taliban’s and Pakistani military establishment’s military victory ironically has put them in a very precarious situation after the expected abrupt exit of the US and its allies from Afghanistan. Our strategists were least clear whether it was good to keep the US in Afghanistan to take the burden of destruction it had caused or force its exit without paying for the reparation of war and destruction. According to a recent study by Watson Institute of International and Public Affairs, the US has spent $5.9 trillion on its wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Pakistan since 2001. The war in Afghanistan alone has cost the US $975 billion, besides $ one trillion on veterans’ medical and disability payments. The annual US war cost in Afghanistan was $45 billion. The cost of war for Afghanistan and its people was much higher: the daily economic cost was $60 million and 250 human casualties. It would take another 21 years, according to a study, to achieve the level of GDP that would have been attained if the country were not involved in the war. The total annual economic cost of war for Afghanistan, according to Professor Paul Collier and Professor Anke Hoeffler at Oxford University, was $21,856 annually or 105 percent of its GDP of $20,815. Therefore, Afghanistan would need $459 billion for its revival in the next two decades. But who will pay the reparation of war and for reconstruction allies? The international community had taken the responsibility of transition of Afghanistan on the path of progress and democracy in 2001 at Petersburg and recommitted to its transformation decade at Bonn in 2011.

As war ends, this will be the responsibility of the international community, the US and its Nato allies in particular, to chart out a reconstruction and development master-plan for Afghanistan and pay for it for two decades. My fear is that if Afghanistan were abandoned again, as it happened after the Soviet exit, the consequences would be more horrendous for Afghanistan, neighboring states and the world at large. Only such an understanding and promise of reconstruction can keep Taliban and other stakeholders on the path of reconciliation, participatory representative system and development. The immediate challenge for the interlocutor is how to realize a viable and inclusive reconciliation among the extremely disparate and hostile elements of an enigmatic Afghanistan. The greatest danger is that whatever the nation-building that has taken place under the western tutelage may not be again ruined as it happened after the Geneva Accord of 1988 and the exit of the Soviet forces.

Even though, like Najeeb regime, the Ghani government might become an imminent casualty, the established state structures must be kept in place with the inclusion of victorious Taliban and without excluding any stakeholder across all divides. Without a broad-based reconciliation and inclusive process of peaceful national unification, there could neither be peace nor development in Afghanistan. Both the exit of US and allied forces and an undertaking for the reconstruction of Afghanistan should be pegged on an agreement on the future democratic and inclusive setup while ensuring equal rights to women and ethnoreligious minorities. The Afghanistan of today is much different from what the Taliban had left behind. It now has a very vibrant middle class, educated youth, professionals and various state structures. It can’t be run by an Amir or caliph the way Taliban run their exclusive organization. They have to understand the dynamics of a modern state and reconcile to its imperatives. Otherwise, no nation building can take place.

Next few months are too crucial and all the stakeholders must work together to work out a smooth transition and consolidation of peace and tranquility in Afghanistan. These are crucial issues that Pakistani establishment must keep in mind. When Prime Minister Khan invites Taliban to Islamabad, he must take the Kabul government into confidence to set the ball rolling. Like US, we also need an accord with Afghan Taliban that they will not let anybody use Afghan territory against Pakistan. If all these matters are not taken into account, the other “world Cup” trophy may turn into an iron in the soul and body of Pakistan. The US and allies must fulfill their responsibilities towards reconciliation, a pluralist, inclusive and democratic social contract and reconstruction of Afghanistan. Otherwise, Pakistan might have to reap the devastating collateral damage of its second great-game victory in Afghanistan.

View expressed in this article are of the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Pajhwok’s editorial policy.

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