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3 Apr 2017 - 14:01
author avatar
3 Apr 2017 - 14:01

KABUL presence in Afghanistan as a threat to their national security, let alone Russia. However, Iran might be more concerned than Pakistan – simply if US decides to attack Iran, then perhaps Afghanistan would be one of the strategic places for an assault against Iran. Pakistan plays various roles from being victim of terrorism to an ally of US on fight against terrorism/Al-Qaida and to periodically supporting and sheltering Taliban.

 

Despite regional powers battle over region’s hegemony, the Afghan government on the other hand failed reaching a peace deal with Taliban. It is been almost 8 years since peace talks have started its initiative, still no result for the government but substantial results for Taliban on conquering more land across Afghanistan. Although some of us may want to undermine Taliban and its existence, but it can be argued Taliban are a power, particularly following various reports and lately of SIGAR, which stipulates they have almost 40% of the country under their control. One would question what made Taliban to have more territorial footprint across Afghanistan – is it the proxy support of Pakistan, popularity and support among Afghans, tribal elders or incompetence of ANSF or perhaps absence of greater US troops? It must be stressed that there are many factors that contributed to this and one of this is both covert and overt support of Pakistan. The world was not surprised when President Musharaf admitted in February 2015 to Guardian newspaper that his government covertly sheltered and supported Taliban. This said, Pakistan may not be able to, both economically and militarily sustain supporting Taliban for long to overthrow the current democratic regime in Kabul, but it can be a cancer for everyone – the US and Afghan government. The second and most important factor is the decrease of coalition forces from 140,000 to only around 20,000.

 

The Afghan government has a very capable 200,000 army of which are only around 80,000 are combat fighters, but it seriously lack air support power and at times shortage of ammunitions. However, there are other factors too that helped Taliban gaining more territorial footprint and popularity in rural areas – is it the corruption free justice, better organization and management of local affairs or fearless fighting in the name of Jihad? Perhaps it can be argued, a bit of all.       

 

Taliban may have some popularity among rural population due to Afghanistan being very traditional and matters of dispute, law and order, where government has no or little presence are either solved through tribal Jirgas or Taliban at times provide corruption free solutions. But there are more important factors where Taliban failed and showed no respect for, such as in areas of human rights, basic rights to education in public and social affairs and freedom of speech. These are fundamentally crucial points for any government opposition or group to accept before any peace and political settlement is reached. A good example was a political and peace deal reached earlier this year between Hezbe Islami Gulbuddin Hekmatyar (HIG) and the government of Afghanistan.

 

The best solution for the ongoing issue would be, for Taliban to appoint a team of peace ambassadors introduced to Kabul government and for the negotiations to take place neither in Qatar nor any other hidden parts of the world, but in Kabul. These negotiations should be welcomed by UN and the international community and should not, at any point to be brokered by any powers except UN. It must be a pure Afghan political settlement. The ideal preferred outcome of the peace deal would be, to share power with Taliban, create a coalition government for 3 years, hand over couple ministries to Taliban, perhaps Ministry of Interior, Justice and the Supreme Court. The deal must set a date for Presidential Election under the newly electronic system proposed. But before any initiative takes place, Taliban must accept and respect without any condition, Afghan Constitution, all international agreements signed by Kabul current and previous government, men and women’s rights to education, human rights, freedom of expression and speech and women’s participation in public affairs.   

 

View expressed in this article are of the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Pajhwok’s editorial policy.

 

 

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The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect Pajhwok's editorial policy.

Author's brief introduction

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Pamir Patang – a security expert and political commentator who previously worked for the British and Afghan governments.

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