Different involved party’s definition from peace in Afghanistan

First Afghanistan:

National Unity Government (NUG) lead by President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani: in November 2018 in Geneva Conference president Ghani announced his definition and plan for peace in Afghanistan under name of honorable peace, he said that based on his analysis and understanding for bringing peace, we need 5 years, which clearly give the meaning that president Ghani plan is to be in power for next five years as president, and then he peace negotiation has to be managed by him. And he want to take the privilege of this peace deal also as he took from peace deal with other waring party HizbiIslamiHekmatyar.

But there are some barriers and obstacle in front of his plan for peace with Taliban, the first issue is that in president Ghani regime, there was no positive changes in people lives, which can be felt. For fighting corruption president Ghani appointed many duel citizens Afghans, Which local Afghans call them Half- ghans (people have USA or European and Afghanistan citizenships). Such move have not only remove corruption but made the corruption more systematic , many Afghans youth become disappointed and frustrated , many become jobless , also the Half-Ghans are taking benefits from this situation, because they see this as an opportunity for finding money, because they does not see their future in Afghanistan.

President Ghani failed in governance process also most of his term was passed by appointing acting officials on high governmental position , which have slowed government activities, that have created much problem for locals , also this resulted on corruption. On the other Ghani does not trust his official so he took all authority on his own hands, his all ministers, governors and other high official does not have any financial and other authorities like appointing some employees or firing. This action have also put have burden presidential palace, which could not handle as well. Ghani have always focused on very big promises like multinational projects for instance Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI), which were much big for a country like Afghanistan and five or ten years term of a president. Such speeches were likely for Afghans, but these projects were not priorities for local Afghans, priorities for locals were peace and security, which Ghani government failed in achieving.

On the other hand president Ghani could not save the political participation, in 2009 president election which Ghani was presidential nominate he only got only 3% percent of total votes , because his votes came only from technocrats and some educated youth, because in Afghanistan votes are mostly based on tribal affiliation. In 2014 Ghani got more votes because he was depended on those power brokers, who are tribal and political leaders like General Dostum, General Juma Khan Hamdard, Hashmat Khalil Karzai, Haji ZahirQader and Mohammad HanefAtmar , these people were his votes banks , but he have not gave any share , when he entered to presidential palace or have gave them some symbolic position without authority. Ghani Such move made all these people frustrated and does not trust Ghani now that is they reason most of them has been stand against him in 2019 election.

Now Ashraf Ghani is aware that he is being isolated in political sphere, so now Ghani is aware of this issue, so he want to do something, which could make him a hero in people mind, that action could be peace with Taliban . But Taliban does not trust Ghani, Taliban says Ghani is American person, that is one of the reason Taliban are not ready to talk directly with NUG. SoGhani plans to postpone presidential election like he postponed parliamentary election to be in power for some time or social-engineer presidential election for his favor. That is the reason most of his rival blame him for interfering in parliamentary election, and scares that such scenario can be repeated in presidential election, so they demand that Ghani should step out from office.

Ghani rival politicians: these politicians do not trust Ghani , also they do not announced any particular strategy for peace, most of them had some kind of partnership in NUG. Ghani have removed most of them government in his regime. So they know until Ghani is in power they can not get power, so they are trying to make a deal with Taliban , if US and Taliban enter into some sort of peace deal , they will be having share in political power.

Afghan Taliban:Taliban are aware that the current Afghan political system become much unstable, also the political mistrust among political have reach to its peak. On the other hand corruption become more systemized. In political theories we call such situation a kleptocratic state, Where a government or state in which those in power exploit national resource and steal; rule by a thieves. Most of government high officials and their families are living abroad, they take Afghanistan money outside Afghanistan, they are happy from such situation, there is no services to people, which have create big distance among government and people. That is the reason Taliban take advantage of this situation of people frustration from government and politicians, they don’t see Afghan government as challenge , they only see International troops lead by USA as challenge in Afghanistan. Taliban sees US president Donald Trump south Asia strategy a golden chance for themselves, because president Trump want end Afghanistan war and want to pull out American troops from Afghanistan . Recently The Taliban’s chief negotiator Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai said in newly released remarks that” the United States is on the verge of defeat and will quit Afghanistan soon “either of their own accord, or they will be forced out.” Taliban think that they have resisted for 17 years against US, they will resist for some more time, and will easily occupy power, because a few time ago President Ashraf Ghani has said that “the Afghan National Army will not last more than six months without US support and the Afghan government will also collapse.” So Taliban thinks why should they talk to Afghan government lead by Ghani , because his government will collapse and other political power brokers political out of government are already ready for deal with Taliban.

Local Afghan Population: local Afghans are fed-up from losing their members in this long war and violence, nothing is more important for them then peace, they want peace in any terms, in Taliban side also Afghans dies and in government also, most of these youth who join Afghan National Defense Security Forces (ANDSF) and Taliban because of economic problems and unemployment. Local Afghans also scares that if Taliban doesn’t join political power peacefully and American leaves Afghanistan, the scenario of Dr. Najeebullah regime collapse will be repeated, in that time Afghanistan went civil war, because Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) are also present in Afghanistan. Also other former warlords still have arms and relation with neighbor countries. So there is high chance of civil war in Afghanistan, if the peace is not well managed with Taliban.

Regional countries:

Pakistan , has to be control by Pakistan friendly local government. So in my opinion Pakistan want a peace, wither Afghan government should be pro Pakistan, or Afghanistan should have a semi federal state, where nearby Durand line territory is control by Taliban, who are friends of Pakistan.

Iran: Iran have resolved its ideological problems with Taliban, because look to Afghanistan issues as same as to Iraq matter. When in 1992 United State attacked Iraq , Iran condemn USA attack despite having enmity with Iraqi regime of SadamHussian, because Iranian leaders were says this attack is not for liberating Kuwait, But it is attack on Islamic world, they have same stance in Afghanistan. These USA presence in Afghanistan danger for themselves and they says that the emergence of Islamic State of Khurasan in Afghanistan is US plan for Iran, also they sees US military bases strategic threat for themselves, that is why they want US to leave, and they support Taliban to force USA to leave and they do not see Taliban as big threat as US toward them.

India: Indian want stable and independent state in Afghanistan, India sees Taliban as tools of Pakistan, they are worry that gain Pakistan will use Afghanistan territory for training militant against Indian, so they want a state not be pro Pakistan.

China: China also have some kind of similar stance like India toward Afghanistan, they do not want Afghanistan should become save haven for Uighurs. There are around 4500 Uighurs in Afghanistan, some are militants affiliated with ISK and some with Taliban. Also China is worry about US presence in Afghanistan and look to US military bases a strategic threat toward itself. So they want US troops to leave Afghanistan. In my opinion Pakistan have assured them that Taliban will not pose any threat to them. So it seems that China is happy that Taliban should come back to power.

Russia: they are also opposite to US presentence in Afghanistan, they questions US mission in Afghanistan and says how Islamic State Khurasan( ISK)has been emerged in Afghanistan , Russian claims that USA is facilitating ISK in Afghanistan to destabilize Russian close partners of central Asian countries. They thinks current Afghan state whether can’t or do not want efficiently fight against Islamic State Khurasan group , Because Taliban are also anti ISK , so Taliban is a good alternative partner for Russia in fighting with ISK , so they want a peace where Taliban dominates in Afghanistan .

International Community leading by USA:

As United States Chicago university professor Johan John J. Mearsheimer says that great powers like USA should only fight limited wars and they should mostly focus on balance power system in global politics, great powers should not involves themselves in long lasting small wars like war in Afghanistan, because the issue of nationalism is involved in such wars, and there is no winner, and such wars can also damage great power prestige. So I think current US president Donald Trump is in some case influenced by this theory of offensive realism in International affairs. That is why he wants USA out of long lasting small wars like Afghanistan and wants to focus on strategic competition like competition with China.

USA came to Afghanistan because in Taliban regime, Afghanistan became the safe-haven for international terrorist groups like Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda used Afghanistan territory against United States, so now if Taliban provide guarantees to USA for not allowing Afghanistan to became safe-haven for terrorists organization , Also Taliban cut their relation with such groups , the problem of United States will solved, in addition USA wants that Taliban should join the current state system and want the current state system has to stay , but US is not emphasizing on president Ghani rule , so the main reason that Ghani is concerns and criticize us efforts for peace is this issue, that why USA does not want Ghani to stay in power.

Some Afghans things that United States have strategic interests in Afghanistan , that is why they want to stay in Afghanistan, But this thinking do not have any proof, because mentioned professor Mearshiemer says that in cold war the important strategic areas for in US grant strategy were first Europe , second South East Asia and third middle east. Europe had importance because of USSR hegemonic issue, but they situation changed ,now because China is become a regional hegemon , so south Asia and south east Asia have first importance , then Europe and then middle east, so looking to this understanding Afghanistan does not have place in this USA-China competition.

View expressed in this article are of the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Pajhwok’s editorial policy.

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