Afghanistan that took the lives of over 100 innocent Afghans and injured 400 more is unbearable for ordinary Afghans anymore, regardless, some official structures still breath normal. For instance, the Police Chief of Kabul arrogantly asserted that such incident is normal during turbulences, and there could be many more similar incidents underway which is precarious, divisive, disdainful and derisive remarks. Such a brazen statement by security agent is hair-raising and deterrent for two reasons. One; the security officials feel impunity no matter what happens to the state security, and second; public life has no value anymore and should be wasted as scape-goats. The general public see it, feel it, and prepare their own set of pressure activities that might be back-breaking for the Afghan government and its counterparts, unless, the public wounds is timely healed.

There are two types of Afghan public. One; they don’t know what is going on, who engineer the different segments of political apocalypse, and how to seek the way out, and second, who better know how to deal with security enigma and how to line-up both security tactics and military apparatus so the casualty concern abate and finally settle Afghanistan with peaceful environment. The first category is hypnotized and play no role, no matter what happens and the second category are systematically sidelined by some power officials, so they have no official authority, and this way, the situation will go on unending.

All parties know the Afghan story with slight difference in perception. Some Afghan people and international allies feel that things are going wrong where so many things can stop the bloodbath and lessen the pressure but do not know how to play. On the other hand, some Afghans confidently understand the scenario with reasons, evidences and means that such chaotic situation is part of the larger drama. The sad thing in the Afghan horror movie is the actual lost of lives, where, the different dots of war are orchestrated very tactfully by many players, that ordinary minds can not trace it.

I am a brave man, by nature political activist, who is mentally ready for adventures and risk ready, but the current political boondoggles and security lapses is higher than my power to bear. I see very dark future of Afghanistan. A future that encompass both psychological hit to many sides, and actual war with regional countries. The war with a number of close door neighbors is probable, sooner or later. This war will take millions of Afghan lives. The war will be very tedious and long, but heavy in casualties. This war will go on and on and on to make a new sad history that will razed both sides. The neighboring countries, if any, will suffer high in term of infrastructures and Afghanistan in human capital.

At the same token, Afghans will suffer a huge hunger, and scarcity of ordinary needs for survival. Afghan daily life is largely contingent on Pakistan and Iran-made products including medicine, fabric, oil, grocery, flour, etc. The Afghan-neighbor countries war will close the border, yet India or China are not much mobilized to swap Pakistan and Iran, therefore, so many lives will be taken this way as well. The war will end with neighbor countries total failure, whoever they are, some regional countries will be expanded enough, breath the sigh of relief, and Afghanistan would be returned to the 1990s or even worse situation.

On the other hand, corrupt Mafia in Afghanistan will gang-up and accelerate to suck up the public blood. Street crimes will be increased and public properties will be looted even on the light day. Such street encounter is another time bomb that can speed up in the absence of law order in the coming years.

Because of the wrong political maneuvers of the Afghan government, the clash of rich and poor is also underway. Some families has been unimaginably rich in the past decade, and millions of other families are such poor who can not feed up their family members three times a day. This fragmentation is like a ticking bomb counts down days and hours that can drenched the Afghan lands with blood.

I am neither Cassandra who post scary tales, nor story teller of “Henny Penny, the Sky is falling” but an eye witness of the day and life of systematic destruction occurred in the decade-long course of time in Afghanistan. What I sadly predict will not only afflict Afghan communities alone, but the impact could be larger and covering regional and global people as well. We can not believe anymore that Europe, Russia, China, or America is tightly sealed and heavily protected, and no Afghan crazy upheaval can penetrate their home security, but as the world is turned into global village, anything can happen in days’ time. Sep 11 2011 is the live example that sourced from Afghanistan, and there could be another Sonami of bad incidents in global communities, unless we all rethink the scenario.

Jack Ma, the Chines billionaire once told that the US spend almost 14.2 trillion dollars alone in it’s direct and indirect global wars in the last 3 decades, where global wars collectively cost over 14 trillion dollars in 2016 only for the entire world. Are not we tired of the pro-longing conflicts? Cant we learn of the brinksmanship maneuvered by so many super powers propped up insurgents group to safe guard their close and far-off interests? Can not we have a decade at least so all we do better for economic recovery through joint business intervention, instead vicious military polo play and gambits? This is not an option, but the dire necessity of our modern time. We need to patch up the broken parts of our world, so insurgent do not infiltrate our homes and our communities anymore.  

Of course, we can do better that we do now, but the need for global consensus is the key, unless, Afghanistan could be the start point of global disorder, and billions of people will pay the price. Neither rich, nor poor countries will stay unhurt. No quick way out will be possible by then when Afghan disasters kick-off, and we all, who plans now the war machine, who lurks around, and who see and wait will be deadly sad of their past doing, but the world would be already razed to the maximum. I am sure the story above is not something new for some readers, but the start of the misery from the Afghan soil which was claimed decade ago to be the soil of vivid example of emerging democracy is something new. I sadly claim all the above prediction, and warn global allies to take the caveat seriously, and do something that can prove my note wrong so we all can breathe peaceful.

The Afghan government is going on the precipitous slides in many parts today, and require consensus-oriented approach including the clear role of international allies and the Afghan public to salvage the mission. Following are the number of strategic ways recommended to both the Afghan government and the United States to consider for short and long term impact.

1. The heads of Unity Government are exchanging slugfests in their dog-eat-dog political worlds, rather than understanding and heeding each others role. The backroom deal in the outset of the President Ghani’s term that carved up political power displeased many Afghans for being unprecedented and assumed beyond the helm of law; and as the deal done now, both sides direly needed to settled their personal fragmentation and come up with national solution that entice public support.

1. The troops surge will not work as the 2008, 2009 and 2011 did not make any slight changes in the war zones. The US and NATO forces may stay in Afghanistan with pre-existed amount of soldiers for more years but with different form, changed engagement and applicable course of actions. The pervasive corruption, erratic regional diplomacy, inter-ministerial fracture, public resentment, fake media, extreme hunger and steep joblessness provide conductive environment for both inside government mafia and insurgents in the outskirt to remobilize their destructive plans and make the mission impossible. No war would be wan, no peace will come, no success will be made, and no development will occur in Afghanistan, no matter how high the cost is paid by international community in the Afghan processes, unless the Afghan government is squeezed hard and pinched to properly project their role and pay their shares. And lastly,

1. Peace is costly today comparison to years 2011, 2012, and 2013. The armed oppositions have found so many surrogates in the region today. Beside other 19 terrorist factions exist in the Afghan soil that mentioned by the Afghan national security advisor in the Indian security conference this year, Taliban will demand lion shares in the deal now for seeing Afghan government irresponsible, unless the possibility for a long-lasting war is still a potential caveat. The US and Afghan government should opt only for the reconciliation process which could be tedious, but succeeding at the end. The power can be shared with Taliban so they have a say in the political processes, and therefore, those insurgent groups in Afghanistan who are irreconcilable should be thwarted together with the Taliban and Hizb-e-Islmai. This is the option that can let all of us have desirable future, unless we all should embark on uncharted water in the middle of no where, or face fiasco at the immediate end.

View expressed in this article are of the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Pajhwok’s editorial policy.

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