Whether one likes it or lump it, Taliban emerged victorious out of the 18 months negotiation with US. Taliban chants of triumph and their march with their flags before they walked into the venue to sign the agreement sent a strong shiver through my chest. True the three and half page long agreement is woven through conditions at different stages until the complete withdrawal of all troops, security contractors and non-diplomatic staff, however there is no guarantee that Taliban will adhere to the agreement by end of April 2021. Stanekzia one of their main members in the negotiation team talked of “victory” and another leader said that the “Afghan side will not be represented as government”.

The US has simply asked for no-use of Afghan soil by terrorists or refuge for them.  The US does not unequivocally ask peace negotiation to happen within the frameworkof the existing constitution. At one point in the agreement thetext refer to the counterparts of Taliban as the Afghan-side and it increases ambiguity in the agreement and mystifies the behind scene agreement over the choice of word.

The path hereon is going to be difficult for two reasons. First, who will organize the “Afghan side” for the intra-Afghan dialogue and who will lead the team.  It is critical to revisit the “insistence” on creation of “interim government” a year ago. Interim government would mean removal of elected government total submission to Pakistani designs and plans for peace.  Kabul based politicians wanted to settle down for anyone other than Ghani. They dream of a federal structure of governance as possible outcome of the negotiation. President Ghani’stimely stand against interim government paid off temporary as Khalilzad and Taliban had to allow election to happen and then talk peace.

The signed peace agreement on Feb 29^th, 2020 between the Taliban and US does not talk about preserving the existing set up, constitution, parliament and other relevant achievements. The agreement talks about intra-Afghan dialogue and does not define red-lines for the hardliners. The agreement does not event talk about democratic set up and merely refers to post-settlement government. It is surrender.  Knowing the warlords who have amassed billions of dollars, would be ready to settle down with Taliban if they receive assurance of protection of their assets and some share in the government. This will isolate the elected government and drastically marginalize president Ghani in the peace process and eventually reverse all that have been achieved in the past 18 years with blood and sweat. There is so much ambiguity surrounding this agreement and if the government does not organize the team, it will be a free-style chaos.

View expressed in this article are of the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Pajhwok’s editorial policy.

Visits: 4