Like most countries in the neighbourhood Afghanistan issues and control the fast spreading disease, the Afghan government is caught up in post accord pulls and pressures. On one side are Americans who want to quickly move forward, start the Intra Afghan dialogue and set the stage for early pull out, on the other is the Taliban, which have gained maximum in the accord are busy setting the terms for the dialogue, and pressurising upon release of the prisoners and the nature of the future political system. Lastly is the fragmented Afghan Government, the continuing infighting between the Ghani and Abdullah Groups, is undermining its authority resulting in a weak hand in the crisis. It is in this rather convoluted scenario the spread of corona virus will have deep impact on the future of Afghanistan. It is in above backdrop this article looks at the implications of emerging scenario for peace and stability in Afghanistan.

 There are two different school of thoughts emerging amid this worldwide crisis. One argues that the world is going to change post COVID-19, while the other believes this to be a passing phenomenon and within a few months’ nations will be back engaging in geopolitical struggle to achieve their interests. Analysts who are propagating the former view are further divided into two, one faction believes it will lead to the end of globalisation and countries will become more inward looking. The other is advocating for a more accommodative global mechanism in which countries have to swim or drown together, as there is little alternative to global response to deal with such crises. Despite these two contrarian strands, one thing is certain there will be a shift in the priorities of nations. Geopolitical interests may remain the same, but priority in addressing them and concomitant resources allocation may change.

It is this scenario that impacts Afghanistan the most. There is all possibility of global downscaling of assistance to Afghanistan. Similarly, personnel deployments will also get scaled down. It is most likely that with the pull-out of Americans, NATO and other’s will also scale down their presence. It is in above context this article examines the evolving situation in Afghanistan in the background of COVID-19 pandemic.

The Peace Process and COVID-19

The Intra-Afghan peace process is inevitably heading towards chaotic unknowns as the Taliban has rejected beginning the dialogue with the team proposed by the Afghan Government. The exact terms and conditions of the US-Taliban deal signed on February 30 are not known as they are a classified document, and only accessible to higher authorities in the US, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Since then, the Taliban has intensified its attacks on the Afghan National Army (ANA) and continued with its strategy of repudiating the authority of the Afghan Government led by President Ghani. The operational capacity of the coalition troops will continue to reduce with the spread of Corona Virus in Afghanistan, and they will be confined to their barracks. As of last week, of March 2020 four coalition service members were tested positive for Covid-19 and another 38 were showing symptoms. 

When most of the world is under lockdown and the US dealing with the largest number of Corona patients, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Kabul and Doha to clear the election deadlock. He carried out shuttle diplomacy between two major political rivals – Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani to form inclusive government and finalise the negotiation team for the Intra Afghan dialogue. He also facilitated the first ever Intra Afghan talks through video conference over the same issue. Frustrated with the intransigence attitude of the Ghani and Abdullah, he announced billion-dollar reduction in aid including a further cut in financial pledges which will be clarified in future donor conferences. This is the stick to bring pressure on the Afghan establishment if they do not deliver on US demands. This has borne fruit to some extent, an exchange of 100 Taliban for 20 soldiers is on cards to kick start the process.

President Ghani putting a brave front assured Afghans that ‘the reduction in the assistance of the United States will not have direct impact on our (Afghan) key sectors and we will make efforts to fill the gap through adopting austerity measures and by finding alternative sources’. Reality however is that since the resurgence of the Taliban in 2007, the US Aid has spent an average $8 billion per year until 2019. At this juncture a drastic cut in aid from the US will adversely affect investments made ‘in building the Afghan institution necessary to establish democratic norms, protect and the preserve the unity of the country, and promote social and economic advancements and the rights of citizens’. Looking at the financial situation due to COVID-19 other coalition partners such as UK, France, Italy and Germany fighting massive epidemic back home, can be expected reconsider economic pledges to Afghanistan.

It is unclear what the US and its allies have in mind for Afghanistan. On one hand it has issued a joint declaration with the Afghan government pledging complete support ‘consistent with commitment under existing security agreements between the two governments’, and on the other the Taliban has denied the right of the government to appoint its representatives for the Intra Afghan dialogue. The text of the peace deal which is available in the public domain is vague on the role of the Taliban in post-withdrawal Afghanistan. It can be concluded in just one sentence that ‘Taliban will prevent any group or individual including Al-Qaida from using the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the US and its allies’. The document is self-explanatory about the timeline of coalition troops’ withdrawal, which the US has begun implementing even though many senior US officials doubt Taliban commitment to peace. This makes the US intention to end this Afghan conundrum clear, even more now due to COVID-19. 

Shifting Regional Priorities Due to COVID-19

To prevent the collapse of the current government in Afghanistan and a complete takeover by the Taliban, some shared responsibility lies with regional actors. The question is – are they capable of this, as they restructure their own priorities due to lack of public health facilities to fight against COVID-19?

Iran: The new US sanctions on Iran during this pandemic could intensify the proxy war between them and in the region, including Afghanistan. By 1^st of April more than 1,30,000 Afghans returned home from Iran fleeing away from Corona Virus Outbreak, and thousands are reaching Herat and Nimroz every day. Large numbers of these are COVID-19 positive. Iran might push more migrant into Afghanistan to increase pressure on WHO, weak Afghan administration and eventually the US. This could create another humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.

Pakistan: As most of the countries closed their borders with neighbours to stop spread of COVID-19, to gain some good faith Pakistan allowed brief opening of borders with Afghanistan during which a limited number of commercial trucks have been allowed to cross to ensure continued supplies of goods in Afghanistan. The pandemic has brought Pakistan on to the brink of economic collapse as its projected growth rate is likely to come down from 4% to 2% or less. It would be difficult for the country on the brink of economic collapse to continue funding proxy wars in its neighbourhood in pursuit of its geopolitical ambitions.  The external resources propping Pakistan dry up sooner than later.  Under the circumstances Pakistan and Taliban will try to gain as much bargaining as possible leveraging, peace in Afghanistan and safe extraction of US forces via Pakistan.

China: China economy which is recovering after successfully controlling the spread of COVID-19, is focusing on rebuilding its collapsed supply chain.  The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Afghanistan will remain at the centre of its Belt and Road Initiative.

Central Asian states and Russia: Their efforts will be to guard their borders from infiltration by Islamic State fighters from Afghanistan. In the backdrop of oil shock and strategic overstretch these states are in no position to offer any assistance. Their focus will be to stop the movements of drug cartels and ISIS – K.

India’s Efforts

On the eve of signing of peace deal between the US and Taliban in Doha, Indian Foreign Secretary visited Kabul. During his visit he met senior political leadership including President Ghani, Abdullah Abdullah and Hamid Karzai among others. He reiterated India’s commitment to ‘enhanced political, economic and development partnership ….. and consistent support for an independent, sovereign, democratic, pluralistic and inclusive Afghanistan’. India also welcomed the announcement of a team for intra- Afghan negotiations. When most of the supply chain hampered all over the world, India is cooperating with the Afghan Government on food security, medical supplies and operation of Cargo flights on the air corridor.

The June 2019 US Department of Defense (DOD) report summarises that, ‘India desires a stable Afghanistan that does not harbour terrorists who could target Indian interests and does not have close ties with Pakistan’.  The report acknowledges India as the largest regional donor to Afghanistan and concludes that ‘A significant deterioration of security conditions in Afghanistan, however, may adversely affect the ability of India to provide aid’. India’s interest in Afghanistan are not limited only to containing Pakistan’s influence, but also the stability of these two partially failed states, as it shares borders with them. Further, India also desires land connectivity to Central Asia and Russia.

India’s ability to provide aid will be hampered due to its own financial constraints, now that the whole country is under lockdown due to COVID-19. While it’s experience during the economic crisis of the 90’s when it continued to play an important role in safeguarding its interests and the Afghan Civil War, may come handy.

Spreading Corona Virus haven’t slowed down political developments in Afghanistan, legitimacy is sliding in favour of the  Taliban, as senior US officials defend the Taliban by appreciating their operations against ISIS-K. India is firm on its position (stated by then External Affairs Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpai, during his visit to Kabul in 1978) for friendly ties with Afghanistan regardless of political change in either country. India is in a much better position politically, both in Afghanistan and internationally, than it was in the 90’s. Over the last two decades, India has maintained its independent policy towards Afghanistan, that is spending all its assistance only through Afghan administration and supporting Afghan led and Afghan owned peace negotiations.

If the Taliban is bound to play a legitimate role in Afghan administration in the future, other countries have to deal with whoever sits in Kabul. The administrative structure built by the US cannot be destroyed completely – which includes the ANA, education centres and most of the Parliamentary system. India has invested not only economically but also human capital in strengthening these institutions. Their protection should be the priority.

Covid-19 may disrupt some of the programmes like training of Afghan diplomats, military officers and student exchange etc. for short period. But at present increased security assistance and diplomatic efforts to unite Afghan political leadership would be crucial. 

India already started sending assistance to the SAARC nations to fight against COVID-19. It has good experience in the Afghan health sector as it gives free medical consultation, medicine and treatment to 300,00 Afghans annually. Areas under control of Taliban requires immediate medical assistance, which they are not able to provide. India can intensify its efforts to help Afghan authorities to build quarantine facilities, not only the government-controlled areas but Taliban as well.

Although India is busy to stop the spread of COVID-19 within the country, its experience and good relations with Afghan leadership will give it a leverage to play positive role in Afghanistan.

Conclusion

Unprecedented situation evolved worldwide due to spread of Corona Virus in March 2020. Such scenario was not anticipated at the time of peace deal signed between the Taliban and the US on February 29. If the fragile peace accord collapses, other states due to their limited capacities, won’t be able to interfere to stop violence. This can lead to another wave of Afghan migrants carrying Corona Virus all over the region. If the US is going to leave Afghanistan only one option is left to stop Taliban from destroying the achievements of last 20 years, that is strong unified Afghan front which can safeguard the interest of all sections of the Afghan society in the Intra-Afghan dialogue. Bringing different power centres together to devise such common front for the success of peace process is the responsibility of regional actors if not they will be on the frontline not the US.

View expressed in this article are of the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Pajhwok’s editorial policy.

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